Rate path still divides investors: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
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- Fed FOMC (chaired by Kevin Warsh) announces its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, with CME FedWatch showing a 31% chance of a hike this week and 50% odds for September; the US 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.3% last week.
- Oil prices dropped 8% in early Monday trading as the US and Iran paused strikes, pulling WTI crude to $83/barrel from a prior $95 and shifting Fed hike odds from 37.4% to 33.7%.
- June PCE inflation, due Thursday, is expected at 3.7% year-over-year by the International Monetary Economics Network, down from May's 4.1% three-year high; the source notes the last PCE release coincided with BTC dropping to macro lows around $58,000.
- Bitcoin reached $65,680 on Bitstamp after Sunday's weekly close but is battling its 50-month EMA trend line, which it flipped to resistance in a move analyst Rekt Capital described as a "copycat" of the 2022 bear market.
- BTC whale inflows to Binance have dropped 44% since June 12 while retail inflows fell only 22%, leaving retail at roughly twice the whale level with a $3.9 billion gap, per CryptoQuant's Amr Taha.
- Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 sits at its lowest since March and its 0.11 Nasdaq correlation was last seen in mid-February, per TradingView, though the source flags that bearish macro events could push the two back into lockstep.
- The S&P 500 lost its 50-day moving average last week and is at risk of testing the 200-day MA near 7,000 (about 5% downside), per Mosaic Asset Company, as the Magnificent 7 fell an aggregate 5.3% through Friday.
Why it matters: Bitcoin faces two macro catalysts in three days — the Fed decision Wednesday and PCE Thursday — and the source flags that the previous PCE release coincided with BTC hitting macro lows near $58,000. The simultaneous 44% drop in Binance whale inflows since mid-June suggests large holders are quietly reducing sell-side pressure even as retail activity stays elevated, per CryptoQuant.
