‘Jaw-dropping’ El Niño bursts through temperature record months before peak — SkimNews
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- The current El Niño has reached a 3.05°C Pacific temperature anomaly, surpassing the previous record of 3.02°C set in November 2015, according to NOAA data measured against the 1991-2020 baseline.
- The ONI metric (Nino3.4), preferred by most meteorologists, sits just one-hundredth of a degree below the 2015 record, with forecasts from 14 climate models projecting a peak of 4.0°C in November-December — a level climate scientist Zeke Hausfather called "mind-blowing" and "Godzilla-level."
- Coral, tree ring, and historical document analysis suggests no El Niño has reached this intensity in the last millennium, with the current event already exceeding the 1997-98 super El Niño that caused $5.7tn in global GDP losses (compared to ~$2tn from the 2008 recession).
- Impacts already manifesting include record wildfires and fatal air pollution in Indonesia, curtailed monsoon rains in India, drought-driven crop losses in Central America, Panama Canal trade slowdowns, and an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season with zero hurricanes to date.
- The UN World Food Programme warned in August that El Niño impacts could push roughly 50 million people into acute hunger, while the UN World Meteorological Organization launched its largest mobilization in 50 years to support national weather services.
- Prof Friederike Otto of Imperial College London warned of "never-before-experienced heat extremes" affecting health, food security, and water stress, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres declaring the planet is "in uncharted waters."
Why it matters: The current El Niño has already exceeded the 1997-98 super El Niño — which caused $5.7tn in global GDP losses — and is still months from its forecast peak, with the World Food Programme warning roughly 50 million people could be pushed into acute hunger. Because this event is unfolding on top of a human-warmed climate baseline, scientists expect it to drive 2027 to become the hottest year ever recorded, amplifying extreme weather risks for vulnerable communities worldwide.
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