Texans Lead 0-2 NFL Teams' Playoff Hopes Ranking — SkimNews
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- Houston Texans lead the eight 0-2 teams in ESPN's playoff-hopes ranking with a 41.8% advance probability via FPI, leaning on last season's 12-2 run after an 0-3 start — though since 2002, just 4 of 102 teams (3.9%) have recovered from an 0-3 start to reach the postseason, and the 2025 Texans account for half of those.
- The Texans' defense has slipped from last season's #2 scoring defense to 19th in points allowed per drive and 23rd in EPA per play through two weeks, after Josh Allen threw for 334 yards and 4 TDs in Buffalo's Week 1 win and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. was beaten for big catches in back-to-back games.
- Houston's running game — a key offseason focus after GM Nick Caserio added David Montgomery, Ed Ingram and others — ranks 28th in success rate, 29th in EPA per snap and 30th in yards per carry on designed runs, with Montgomery averaging 2.7 yards per attempt despite three opening-week TDs and injuries sidelining Ingram (missed the Bengals game) and Braden Smith (foot, IR).
- Texans coach DeMeco Ryans chose to attempt a 58-yard field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-1 in the Bengals loss — a decision NFL Next Gen Stats pegged at a 7.4-point swing in win probability, while teams in that exact situation over the past three seasons have gone for it 180 of 190 times.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank second at 16.6% playoff odds, having opened 2026 by losing to the Bengals after fumbling four times (Cincinnati recovered all four, including two inside the red zone) and then dropping a home game to the Browns through a multihour lightning delay.
- The Buccaneers are still chasing last season's second-half collapse that erased a 6-2 start at the bye and knocked them out of the playoffs — a pattern Barnwell calls emblematic of a perpetually weird Tampa Bay, where a Week 18 must-win over the Panthers briefly reopened their postseason path before Atlanta's win over the Saints shut it down.
Why it matters: Only 4 of 102 teams since 2002 (3.9%) have made the playoffs after an 0-3 start, and the Texans account for two of those comebacks — making Houston's 41.8% FPI projection look generous given their 28th–30th ranked running game and a defense that has fallen from last season's #2 scoring ranking to 19th through two weeks, while the rest of the eight 0-2 clubs have no comparable precedent to fall back on.
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