2026 3M Open odds, picks, field: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Scottie Scheffler is the +240 favorite at the 2026 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, seeking his second win of the year after finishing fourth at the British Open, with a massive gap to the rest of the odds board.
- Maverick McNealy is co-second favorite at +2500 alongside defending champion Kurt Kitayama, but the SportsLine model predicts he won't finish in the top 5, citing his 113th ranking in strokes gained: approach and 122nd in driving accuracy plus a missed cut at last year's 3M Open.
- Johnny Keefer at +6500 is the model's other key target after placing third at the Scottish Open and ranking second on tour in greens in regulation, with TPC Twin Cities' iron-play emphasis fitting his ball-striking strengths.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has correctly predicted 17 majors including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight), the 2025 PGA Championship, and the 2025 Open Championship, simulating every PGA Tour event 10,000 times.
- The 3M Open is one of three remaining PGA Tour events before the FedExCup playoffs begin on Aug. 13, making it a final tune-up for players chasing postseason positioning.
Why it matters: With Scheffler priced at +240 and a 10x gap to the next tier at +2500, bettors face a compressed payout on the favorite and elevated upside on longshots — the model's McNealy fade and Keefer endorsement hinge on TPC Twin Cities rewarding iron play over putting, the exact profile that has burned McNealy (122nd in driving accuracy) and boosted Keefer (2nd in GIR) in recent starts.
