2026 3M Open odds, picks, field: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler is the +240 favorite at the 2026 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, seeking his second win of the year after finishing fourth at the British Open
- Kurt Kitayama (+2200), the defending champion, and Maverick McNealy (+2500) are the only players priced shorter than +3000, per FanDuel
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the 3M Open 10,000 times and has nailed 17 majors including the 2026 Masters and the 2025 PGA Championship
- The model predicts Maverick McNealy won't crack the top 5, citing his missed cut at The Open, a 55th-place finish the prior week, and weak approach metrics (113th in strokes gained: approach, 122nd in driving accuracy)
- The model highlights Johnny Keefer (+5500) as a target, noting he ranks 2nd on tour in greens in regulation percentage with top-10 marks in driving distance and strokes gained: off-the-tee — a profile that fits TPC Twin Cities' iron-play emphasis
- The model is also targeting a longshot at +6000 or higher to contend for the title
- The 3M Open is one of three remaining PGA Tour events before the playoffs begin Aug. 13
Why it matters: Scheffler's +240 price leaves almost no value in the favorite, so bettors need contrarian angles — and the model offers two with explicit statistical backing. Fading McNealy at +2500 is grounded in his 113th-ranked approach game and missed cut at this venue last year; backing Keefer at +5500 rests on his 2nd-ranked GIR% at a course that suppresses putting premium. Both calls give bettors a data-grounded alternative to laying heavy chalk on Scheffler.
