Scheffler Favored at 3M Open; Model Fades McNealy, Picks Keefer
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- Scottie Scheffler is the +260 favorite at the 2026 3M Open, seeking his second win of 2026 after finishing fourth at the British Open, with only two other golfers (Kurt Kitayama and Maverick McNealy at +2500) priced shorter than +3000.
- Maverick McNealy is flagged by the model as one to fade despite his +2500 price, with the source citing his 113th ranking in strokes gained: approach the green, 122nd in driving accuracy, and a missed cut at last year's 3M Open.
- Johnny Keefer, a 25-year-old at +6000, is the model's sleeper pick after placing third at the Scottish Open two weeks ago; he ranks second on Tour in greens in regulation percentage, a strength the source says will be magnified at TPC Twin Cities' large greens that favor iron play over putting.
- SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the tournament 10,000 times and has a track record of nailing 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters and last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.
- The 2026 3M Open begins Thursday at 7:45 a.m. ET at TPC Twin Cities in the Minneapolis metro and is one of three remaining PGA Tour events before the playoffs start on Aug. 13.
- The model is also targeting an additional longshot at +6000 odds or higher to make a run at the title, with the specific pick gated behind a SportsLine subscription.
Why it matters: With Scheffler a +260 favorite and only two others shorter than +3000, top-of-board value is thin for bettors — and the model's fade of co-second favorite McNealy (113th in SG:approach, missed last year's cut) while backing +6000 Keefer (2nd in GIR%) offers a course-fit-driven alternative before the Aug. 13 playoffs.
