College football score predictions for Week 4, 2026: Model backs Oklahoma (+13.5) against Georgia — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model projects Georgia to beat Oklahoma 28-20, making Oklahoma (+13.5) the against-the-spread play in 56% of simulations while the Over (44.5) hits 55% of the time.
- Oklahoma's defense hasn't surrendered more than 17 points in any game this season, and the model has factored that in — projecting Georgia to fall short of 30 points in the matchup.
- Arch Manning leads No. 1 Texas into Neyland Stadium as a 4.5-point road favorite over No. 14 Tennessee, nearly 30 years after his uncle Peyton Manning played his final game there.
- Oklahoma enters the Georgia game off a 14-6 escape over New Mexico State as a 21.5-point favorite, following a loss at Michigan.
- The model is 22-19 on top-rated college football picks this season and was upgraded for 2026 to better account for transfer portal movement.
- Other notable Week 4 lines include Oregon as a 3-point road favorite at USC, Michigan -5.5 at home vs. Iowa, and Ohio State -27.5 against Illinois.
Why it matters: For bettors using prediction models, Oklahoma (+13.5) as a spread play is grounded in the model's view that Georgia's offense hasn't yet faced a defense as stingy as Oklahoma's — the Sooners have held all three opponents to 17 points or fewer. The model's 22-19 track record offers a small-sample profitability signal, while the Tennessee-Texas marquee matchup carries the Manning family narrative at Neyland.
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